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作者: 张爱文
关键词: 德尔菲预测;仿真模拟;实验案例
发表日期: 2017-12-20
德尔菲预测仿真模拟实验,是对德尔菲理论课程教学与理解的辅助手段,通过对德尔菲理论所给条件、场景与流程的仿真模拟,能在较短时间内,以几乎为零的经济成本,模拟出德尔菲预测法全过程的可操作性与应用结果的收敛性,这个仿真实验,可以全面满足德尔菲预测方法的所需条件及数次预测轮回的全部过程。仿真模拟过程几乎不受苛刻环境条件的限制,不受专家人数的限制,在任何一间教室,只要有台电脑运行本软件系统,就可以实施德尔菲预测仿真模拟的全流程,简便易行。该系统另一个值得肯定的优势就是,每次仿真模拟的结果优劣也可以给出自身的参考评价,可以根据每次运行的结果自动生成一个百分制分数,供实施仿真者对照参考!
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关键词: 德尔菲预测;仿真模拟;实验案例
发表日期: 2017-12-20
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